How Mortgage Rates are Determined


Monetary

Updated Mar 22nd, 2021

This article does a good job explaining.

What’s also of interest in this discussion is that mortgage rates are one factor to consider in determining the cost of home ownership. The price of the house is also a consideration. You may have heard of the saying, “people don’t by house they buy payments.” Housing prices may be rising but if the mortgage rates are decreasing then monthly payment may be cheaper. The inverse should also be true, if interest rates are rising and home prices are declining the monthly payment may still be more expensive. My hypothesis is that rates and prices usually have an inverse relationship but is that true?

I see four environments regarding rates and prices:

Rates Rising, Prices Rising:

Rates Rising, Prices, Falling:

Rates Falling, Prices Rising: What we saw during 2020. Rates at historic lows but prices up 20% year-over-year.

Rates Falling, Prices Falling: