Cambridge Q2


Interviews

Updated Mar 20th, 2022

Video here

Jeff Snider was a great watch: Monetary system has evolved outside of the Fed. Interest rate fallacy. Economy will take some time to get going and money printing. Demand rebounded quickly due to stimulus but created a supply shock. Shift from consumer goods back to services, normalizing crazy conditions. Money printing doesn’t change deflationary background (example Japan). QE is not money printing, bank has swapped a bond for a reserve asset, but nothing has changed. This can actually be harmful for liquidity. Robs system of collateral, repo and derivatives. At most QE is asset swap from perspective of commercial banks, at granular level, QE actually robs the system of needed collateral and causes dealers to adjust in a negative way. Bank reserves are accounting fiction, QE may be more harmful than helpful. 50/60 years ago, Fed could no longer define money anymore due to Eurodollar but uses jawboning/expectations/signaling policy. Central banks have moved to expectations-based policy. QE is smoke and mirrors to convince people they are in control. As long as you think they are printing money, they don’t have to print money. Banking system is broken. Inflation case is the outlier. Deflation continues to be the base case. In all bonds markets, yields remain extremely low. Uniform in saying inflation potential now is less than it was during the last decade. Bond yield and markets have been more accurate far more than any gurus.